Plan B 4.0 Mobilizing to save civilization.

Brown, L. R. (2009). Plan b 4.0: Mobilizing to save civilization. New York: W.W.Norton & Company.

From the perspective of the causes of the decline and fall of civilizations, Lester R. Brown assesses what environmental, economic, political, and social forces might subject current
civilizations to a similar fate. In his introductory chapter, the author cited food shortages, 'ponzi' economies, and failed states as areas of concern. To avoid an impending crisis, the author presented the four components to his Plan B: "cutting net carbon dioxide emissions 80 percent by 2020, stabilizing population at 8 billion or lower, eradicating poverty, and restoring the earth's natural systems, including its soils, aquifers, forests, grasslands, and fisheries" (pp. 24-25).

Brown began his discussion by addressing the "population pressure: land and water" (p. 31). Growing food requires water. Brown estimated that one person's daily consumption of food consumes 2000 liters of water per day. Available water, either surface or underground, cannot match the amount of water needed to supply the world's food needs. "With water tables now falling in almost every country that irrigates with underground water, many of these countries are facing hunger-inducing losses of irrigation water as aquifers are depleted and wells go dry" (p. 32). Constant food production inevitably results in soil exhaustion and abandonment, which leads to soil erosion, further reducing irrigable land. The environmental consequences include increases in the number of dust storms, expansions of deserts, loss of topsoil, deterioration of grasslands, and insufficient grasslands for cattle, sheep, goats, and other pastural animals--in short, shrinking earth.

To feed its population, many countries have resorted to ground water for irrigation. Years of reliance have resulted in over pumping of aquifers and falling water tables. Twenty years of pumping in Saudi Arabia has resulted in a depleted aquifer and the accelerated import of its grain supply. Similarly aquifers in Yemen, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Israel, Mexico, the Ogallala in the United States Great Plains, areas of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, an aquifer in the North China Plains, and one in India suffer from depletions. The transfer of water rights from agriculture to cities compounds this problem. Urban areas with shortages of water experience markets that sell water to urban populations. According to Brown, "Colorado has one of the world's most active water markets" (p. 43), especially in the Arkansas basin where one-third of the water rights supplying farmers has transferred to the cities of Colorado Springs and Aurora. Farmers lack the economic resources to compete.

In addition to the competition between farmers and municipal water providers in developed countries, in undeveloped countries farmers and herders come into conflict. Brown attributed the genocide in Rwanda partially to the tension between these two groups. He found tensions between these groups in the Darfur region of Sudan, Mali, Nigeria, and India. To further complicate the situation, biofuels have strained food resources and has, according to Brown, tied the price of grain to the price of oil. The number of malnourished people in the world has grown as has the number of environmental refugees. The United Nations has projected that by 2020 60 million people will migrate from Saharan Africa to North Africa and Europe because of desertification.

Embedded in Brown's plan to reduce water use in cities, he advocated a transition from water-based sewage systems and sewage treatment facilities to a composting system, which employ composting toilets. These systems save water, reduce the energy required to pump and clean water, and can incorporate food waste, producing nutrient rich material to enrich soil. Sweden has pioneered the use of these toilets. Water reuse, recycling, water efficiency standards for appliances, and closed-loop water systems provide other options to conserve water.