Resource Revolution: Meeting the world's energy, material, food, and water needs (Part 2)

Focusing on the water concerns of this report, this post will summarize the authors' conclusions and recommendations, based on the assumptions outlined in the previous post.

The authors anticipated approximately a 40 percent increase in water withdrawals from 2010 to 2030, of which agricultural will consume 65 percent, industrial 25 percent, and municipal 10 percent. Emerging markets account for most of the increased agricultural demand, especially in India and sub-Saharan Africa, while China will absorb most of the industrial use. Climate change clouds future projections, causing the authors to predict "lower-than-expected crop yields caused by irregular rainfall and deteriorating soil conditions" (p. 42).  The resulting consequences entail the following, "by 2030, more than half of the world's population could live in regions that suffer from water scarcity" (p. 42).

Supplying the increase in water demand will "be costly and difficult" (p. 47).  Dried-up lakes and stressed rivers, such as the Colorado in the United States and the Yellow River in China, reduce freshwater supplies. Additionally, water pollution and deleted aquifers diminish available resources of inexpensive water options. Desalination and water harvesting escalate the cost of water. The difficulties of transporting water from one location to another makes it a localized resource with, potentially, localized cost recovery measures.

Of the 15 opportunities mentioned by the authors, municipal water leakage affects directly water supply. The authors estimate that leakage worldwide accounts for 5 percent of total supply, with the United Kingdom and India experiencing 25 percent and 26 percent, respectively. To ameliorate this situation water providers require capital.  However, the authors calculate a direct return on the investment of, for example, 22 percent in China. Unfortunately, insufficient data exist about the scale of leakages on a national  and utility level and the absence of public pressure to eliminate leaks, upgrade infrastructure, and perform adequate and routine maintenance. Furthermore, "unconditional financial support from government or subsidies within municipal accounts lead to a lack of incentives for service providers to improve their metering, billing, and collection practices" (p.95).  The authors recommend, "conducting regular water audits, reviewing network operating practices, developing information systems, and training and incentivizing staff" (p. 95).

For the agricultural sector, prevailing flood irrigation techniques and practices wastes scarce water resources. By switching to sprinkler or drip systems, farmer can reduce water usage and increase their crop yields. According to the authors, "the use of sprinklers can improve yields by 5 to 20 percent and reduce the water required by 15 percent. Drip irrigation is even more effective, improving yields by 15 to 30 percent while reducing the water required by 20 to 60 percent. Together, these levers have the potential to save 250 to 300 billion cubic meters of water in 2030--saving on net water withdrawal (pp. 106-7). The capital investment of these systems make them prohibitive for small, family, and subsistence farmers throughout the world. Ignorance of the benefits of drip and sprinkler systems deters adoption as well as the absence of a market price for water.

Contrasting the use of drip and sprinkler systems in two water short countries, the authors cite Israel and India. India employs these systems for only 5 percent of agricultural output; Israel applies them predominately. "Israel's heavy use of drip irrigation has increase the country's agricultural output 12-fold over the past 50 years, even while its water consumption has remained constant" (p. 107). 'Fertigation', Israel's combination of drip systems with fertilizer demonstrates its research and development (R&D) success in the agricultural sector.

To analyze  impediments to implementing reform, the authors created a grid that identified various types of responses and the incentive, decision-making, and implementation barriers that stakeholders might encounter. Of the responses, the authors listed three: supply expansion, productivity response, and climate response. Incentive barriers encompasses capital intensity and return on investment. Decision-making barriers included agency issues, political risk, and information failures. The last category of barriers, implementation barriers, contained supply-chain bottlenecks, capital availability, regulatory issues, technological readiness, and entrenched behavior. Overcoming barriers mandates a change of mindsets, fundamental to any reform. Ideally, new attitudes will spur innovation, improve business portfolios, and uncover new markets, that promote growth.